Ukrain's Weekly - predictable steps

What's new in the conflict?
Hacking
Not surprising but still new: According to Ukraine's state security service, Russian hackers found their way into the Ukrainian military IT-System. Shocking! (not really)

As posted here already two weeks ago: Kiev might be able to move their tanks more or less fast from the western part of the country into the East. More difficulties the country definitely has by enhancing their IT-security level. How Russia is going to use the information they gained probably depends on what has been sacked and saved - I doubt anyone will make that public.

Sanctions going on

The European Union extends their sanctions for another six month - not very surprising either.
But in my opinion it is surprising that they did not find any consensus on widening their sanctions. I bet there are more ways on putting pressure than the existing one, which (according to experts and diplomats) already lead to twelve-figure losses on Russian's side since 2014.

The Gathering

As planned: France, Germany, Russia and the Ukraine met on Tuesday. Details stayed behind a curtain of confidentiality. Very sad.
Either the involved parties did not find anything worthy to announce OR (that is what I hope) they just did not want anyone to lose face. But very probably they just have not found anything to build a consensus on - yet.
Interesting fact: Normally the foreign ministers themselves are meeting up for such a format. Tuesday though, only the advisers of each country came together.
Only a scanning how far each party is willing to move before bringing the big fishes into the bowl?

Church splits

(picture: dpa)

Surprising - at least for me since I am not a follower of news from any church:
Ukrainian Orthodox broke with the Russian Church. I did not expect any big church to split during my lifetime but here it comes. It must feel as a relief for many Ukrainians. Finally being on their way to fully independency from Russian authorities.
This seems just to be another predictable step in cutting all existing threads with Russia.


Playground

Meanwhile, Russia keeps playing with the Ukrainian harbours in the Sea of Azov. It is not anymore the fact alone that cargo ships might have to wait for several days before they are allowed to pass through the Kerch Strait.

Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

Ship owners and companies need to plan and pay the time the ship is driving - or waiting. Feeling insecure about the whole situation is already enough to fear them off. Very soon Russia does not need to block and check every ship which wants to pass through anymore, since there will be no one approaching the Ukrainian harbours.
The bigger harbour which is located in Mariupol hast 18 berth. You can imagine what that means for the city - one of their biggest source of income - is going to perish.

The Gathering

France, Germany, Russia and the Ukraine will gather in a "Normandy Format" Germany's State Secretary Heiko Maas announced Thursday on the OSCE summit in Milan. They are going to address the expanded conflict in the Sea of Azov.

On the same summit Ukraine's foreign minister calls for a harder way against Russia by increasing the sanctions:

It is a matter of urgency to provide a prompt and consolidated international response to this act of aggression. Declarations are not enough. There must be action.

We must raise the cost for Russia with comprehensive and tailored sanctions ... There can be no business as usual.

Whatever international governance is going to offer and provide, Moscow has to keep pretending a strong stance. It is probably one of the last reasons why Russians are still supporting their leadership in between of challenges of their domestic politics and western sanctions.

Uniting the people by creating enemies all around them is still "the way to go" for Russia.

So, next Tuesday the four countries are going to meet up.

What can be expected?

 

- OSCE supervisors?

France and Germany are struggling to mediate between the Ukraine and Russia since 2014.
Now it is planned that the OSCE might supervise the Kerch Strait, the small keyhole between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, so both countries - Russia and the Ukraine - can pass freely.

The same organization unfortunately fails to keep ceasefires between the Ukraine and Russia in eastern Ukraine. How is that supposed to work? What would be the best next steps concerning the upraising escalation between the two states around the Sea of Azov?

- A contract, which allows the Ukraine one ship per day to pass by the Kerch Strait into the Sea of Azov which Russia now more and more claims to be only their territory?👌😅

REUTERS/Pavel Rebrov

I was not making fun by calling it a "keyhole" earlier. Larger ships can not drive through there anymore since Russia connected Crimea with their main land by building a bridge which has been finished this year. Plus: it now can easily be blocked.
Fortunately Ukrainian ships were allowed to pass again since Tuesday - after having to stop and being controlled by Russian forces. They were literally queueing up for it.

- Exchanging arrested people between the Ukraine and Russia?
Meanwhile, 24 Ukrainian sailors are still in detention, threatened by ending up in prison for a long time. Russian foreign minister made it clear on the summit, that no talks about their destiny will start before the trial on Crimea is over.
As a response, Kiev prohibited men between 16 and 60 to enter the Ukraine completely during their act of martial law.


- Using their "influence" to work on another ceasefire?
Combat in eastern Ukraine is still going on. People still die. No end to it can be seen so far.
I am very curious.

Ukraine's security level on critical infrastructure - Does it even matter?

Two years ago, there was a second attack on Ukraine's power supply which no one really took record of.

Lazarenko/Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS

Now, in the fallout of the latest events, Ukraine's President Poroshenko is taking precautions and enhanced the security at Ukraine's harbours and power plants.

BUT: Russia has not only overwhelming firepower compared to the Ukraine. It is also able to cripple their infrastructure by using less obvious and trackable ways than rockets and bullets.

Russia's IT power has more than once been accused in spreading false information by bot networks and hacker cells. Not only in the Ukraine, but also in the U.S. and in Germany.

As mentioned above Russia has already proven its capacity in December 2016. But since IT security can not be boosted with sheer military presence, we will see how effective the steps taken by Petro Poroshenko really are, if Russia tries to turn the light switch off again.

Petro Poroshenko himself accused Russia being on a cyberwar against his country in 2016, also suffering attacks against the finance and defence ministries:

“the investigation of a number of incidents indicated the complicity directly or indirectly of Russian security services waging a cyberwar against our country”

Hopefully Mr Poroshenko has learned something from that incident. Today's wars are surely not fought only by military strength - although deterrence is still a thing nowadays.

I see a future with decentralised hacker organizations around the world, paid by the political influencer of your choice. If you don't want the whole world to know that the attacks are being carried out by you - why would you let them operate in your own country? Of course the hackers might be better controlled, but is that really necessary? There are good hackers who fight for the right thing, why shouldn't there be hackers who do what ever they are asked for if the price is right?

Tensions on a new Peak between Russia and the Ukraine

My name is Florian and I am a student of the University of Malta.

Since I am very interested in politics in general - in decisions on the greater political stage between countries even more, I chose a topic to write about which is not only very delicate but also will possibly affect lots of European citizens - once again.

There are several "incidents" - some proven, some are not. They describe how Russia is carving their own foreign policy picture e.g. the accusations for meddling in the U.S elections or the case of the former Russian spy Skripal. Just until now it has become a bit more calm around it.

War is knocking on Europe's door

 

The tensions between the Ukraine and Russia reached a new peak after Crimea has been annexed in 2014.
On Monday, only one day after the incident of three Ukraine ships being seized by Russian military including fired shots and injured men, Ukraine's parliament called out martial law for 30 days in parts of the country.

© OpenStreetMap

Frightening as it is - it comes handy for Putin and even for the Ukraine's president Poroschenko. Russia suffers serious domestically problems right now. History has shown that one of the best ways to distract from them is to have or create external problems which helps to unite the own country.
Poroschenko himself could use this incident for the upcoming elections next spring.
Perhaps that is why none of them is asking for a middleman or an international court right now.